Below, I have listed indicators that investors should keep an eye on over the next month.
§The value of the dollar and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries. There is a real “bubble” in U.S. Treasury bonds with yields below 1%(adjusted for inflation). Watch for significant losses as bond prices drop sometime in early 2009. With U.S. short term interest rates increasing relative to ECB rates, and the U.S. trade deficit declining, the dollar is likely to continue to increase in value.
§The October PMI. We will be closely watching regional and national ISM reports (Nov. 3rd www.outlook-economic.com and www.ism.ws ). This is much anticipated and the first data out for the month. An increase will be an important early indicator that recession risks are declining.
§The employment report for Oct. will be released on Nov. 7th . Job losses for a 9th straight month will be very bearish and more than confirm the “jobs recession.” (www.bls.gov)
§Third quarter GDP growth (advance) will be released on October 30th by the BEA (www.bea.gov) . Even though that is behind us, it is very important. A negative growth number seals a recession.
§First time claims for unemployment insurance. Released every Thursday. Numbers above 450,000 are bearish. (www.dol.gov)
Ernie Goss
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