Obama’s Economy Versus Trump’s Economy: Which Is Tops?

Supporters of President Obama argue that President Trump has benefited from the economic policies from his predecessor, rather than from his own policies. How does the economic performance compare between the last 24 months of the Obama Administration, and the first 24 months of the Trump Administration across important economic metrics?

Overall Economy. For the first two years of the Trump Administration, gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 9.9%. This compares to 6.4% GDP growth for the last two years of the Obama Presidency. In terms of inflation adjusted (real) GDP growth, Obama’s GDP growth was 4.8% versus Trump’s advance of 7.5%. Advantage Trump.

Jobs. For the first two years of the Trump Administration, total non-farm jobs expanded by 3.3%. This compares to 3.6% non-farm job growth for the last two years of the Obama Presidency. In terms of manufacturing job growth, Obama’s growth was 0.5% versus Trump’s advance of 3.7%. Advantage Obama Overall Job Growth; Trump Advantage Manufacturing Job Growth.

Unemployment. For the first two years of the Trump Administration, the unemployment rate declined by eight-tenths of one percentage point. This compares to a fall of nine-tenths of one percentage point for the Obama Presidency. Advantage Obama.

Wages and Salaries. For the first two years of the Trump Administration, non-farm wages and salaries rose by 9.4%. This compares to a lower gain of 8.2% for the last two years of the Obama Presidency. Advantage Trump.

Federal Spending and Taxes. For the first two years of the Trump Administration, federal spending as a percent of GDP fell by approximately one-half of one percentage point. This compares to an increase of approximately one-half of one percentage point for the final two years of the Obama. For the last two years of the Obama Administration, federal taxes as a percent of GDP expanded by 0.225% while they declined by 1.22% for the first two years of the Trump Presidency. Advantage Trump.

Federal Deficit and Debt. For the first two years of the Trump Administration, the federal deficit as a per-cent of GDP fell by 68 basis points or 68 hundredths of one percentage point. This compares to a decline of 36 basis points for the final two years of the Obama. For the last two years of the Obama Administration, the total federal debt as a percent of GDP expanded by 424 basis points, while they declined by 110 basis points for the first two years of the Trump Presidency. Advantage Trump.

The president’s influence on the overall economy is limited with other factors such as global growth and Federal Reserve policy playing significant roles. Nonetheless, there is evidence that Trump’s economic policies of less regulation and lower taxes since taking office are pushing most economic metrics in a more favorable direction than experienced in the 2.0 years before Trump assuming the presidency.
Ernie Goss